Loot Probability Calculator
Know your odds before you spend. Calculate exact probabilities for getting specific items from loot boxes, gacha systems, and random drops. Enter the drop rate percentage and number of attempts to see the probability of getting at least one copy, expected cost, and the number of pulls needed for 50%, 90%, and 99% confidence. Supports pity systems like Genshin Impact.
Quick presets:
How to Use
- 1
Enter the Drop Rate
Input the probability percentage of getting the item you want (e.g., 1% for a 1-in-100 drop, or 0.6% for Genshin Impact 5-star rate).
- 2
Set Number of Attempts
Enter how many attempts/pulls/rolls you plan to make or have already made.
- 3
Add Pity System (Optional)
If your game has a pity system (guaranteed drop after N attempts), enter that threshold for accurate calculations.
- 4
Review the Results
See your probability of success, expected number of attempts to get the item, and attempts needed for 50%, 90%, and 99% confidence.
Examples by Niche
0.6% base rate, 90-pull pity → 50% chance at ~63 pulls, guaranteed by pull 90. Expected cost: ~1.6 pulls per rate-up character.
1/4096 rate (0.024%) → need 2,850 encounters for 50% chance, 12,000+ for 99% confidence
0.26% knife chance → 50% chance after 267 cases, expected 1 knife per ~385 cases ($~1000+)
5% diamond drop from zombie with Looting III → 26% chance in 6 kills, nearly guaranteed in 90 kills
Frequently Asked Questions
How is loot probability calculated?
Probability of getting an item in at least one of N attempts with rate P is: 1 - (1 - P)^N. For example, a 1% drop rate over 100 attempts gives a 63.4% chance of getting at least one. The calculator also shows expected attempts and cost.
What is a pity system?
Pity systems guarantee a rare item after a certain number of failed attempts. For example, Genshin Impact's 5-star pity guarantees a 5-star character within 90 pulls. Enter the pity threshold to get accurate calculations.
Can this calculate Pokémon shiny odds?
Yes — enter the shiny encounter rate (1/4096 base rate, 1/1365.33 with Shiny Charm) and the number of encounters to calculate your probability of finding a shiny Pokémon in that time.
How much would it cost to guarantee a gacha item?
Enter the drop rate, cost per pull, and optionally the pity threshold. The calculator shows the expected number of pulls and total cost to reach 50%, 90%, and 99% probability. For example, a 0.6% rate without pity requires about 767 pulls for 99% confidence, while Genshin Impact's 90-pull pity system caps the worst case.
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